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Is sustainability becoming structural? In our ongoing series, we take a closer look at sustainability in 2026.
Despite recent political noise, the data from 2025 and projections for 2026 reveal that market forces, innovation and operational necessity are driving the low carbon transition forward.
At the same time, the counter-narrative is getting louder: one immediate example being the US decision to withdraw from the UNFCCC and end participation in the IPCC. We’re also potentially entering a more security-shaped energy landscape, with uneven policy pressure on NGOs, which could make the transition more volatile and fragmented, even if the direction of travel remains toward decarbonisation.
For example, even with oil prices down ~18% in 2025 [1], conflict still drove volatility and US involvement in regional security operations has shifted maritime risk and enforcement dynamics [2] – energy remains a geopolitical issue.
The core case of the transition narrative is that sustainability is becoming structural: decoupling of emissions from growth, renewables overtaking coal’s share in the global energy mix, and evidence that global greenhouse gas emissions are at (or near) a peak as the world moves toward absolute decline [3, 4]. Sustainability is likewise increasingly perceived as not just good strategy but a compliance necessity in most of the global market [5].
📊 Signals that the transition is becoming structural:
- Countries representing 92% of the global economy have decoupled consumption-based emissions from GDP expansion; 46% of global GDP now sits in countries expanding their economies while also cutting emissions) [3].
- Clean economy investment outweighs fossil fuels, with investment surging to $2.2 trillion – double the amount flowing into fossil fuels [6].
- The number of national climate framework laws has tripled since 2015 and 83% of the global economy remains covered by net zero targets [5].
- While political pressure forced some companies to speak less about green initiatives (“greenhushing”) in 2025, sustainability work continued.
However, a key uncertainty for 2026 is how much capital, industrial capacity and political attention will be redeployed to defence or actual conflict. What does that mean for the pace and financing of sustainability? We have already seen that defence spending is scaling quickly in flashpoint regions [7].
🏢 Signals on the evolving corporate response as we move into 2026:
- The focus is shifting from “grand promises” to steady competence that links goals to real metrics, decision-making and shared ownership.
- Complex data is being turned into actionable business intelligence, with AI positioned as improving efficiency and lowering emissions.
- It's an industrial reality that companies have to plan around the fact that China controls 70%+ of global manufacturing capacity across nearly every clean tech category [8].
If we only looked at political noise, we might assume the transition is stalling. Yet emissions growth has dropped sharply since the Paris Agreement and has plateaued [3], clean energy jobs have surpassed fossil fuel jobs (supporting over 36 million livelihoods) and climate policy is increasingly woven into trade and international relations [5].
⏳ Core essentials for teams in 2026:
- Communications – lead with proof in a noisier, more polarised environment
- Sustainability – move from pledges to assurance-ready implementation to maintain momentum amid backlash, dissent and fatigue
- Marketing – prioritise verifiable performance and robust claims governance
- Leadership – integrate climate, geopolitics and capital allocation, treating defence/conflict dynamics as a board-level uncertainty
What do you think? In your organisation, is sustainability still treated as a programme? Or is it being rebuilt as a core component for 2026? Are your teams equipped to operate credibly amid both transition momentum and a more contested geopolitical landscape?
Articles referenced:
- “Oil prices log steepest annual drop since 2020” Reuters, Enes Tunagur and Laila Kearney (December 2025) https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-slips-brent-heads-longest-stretch-annual-losses-2025-2025-12-31/
- “US issues fresh sanctions targeting Venezuela's oil sector" Reuters, Daphne Psaledakis and Marianna Parraga (December 2025) https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-targets-crude-oil-tankers-firms-new-venezuela-related-sanctions-treasury-2025-12-31/
- “Economic growth no longer linked to carbon emissions in most of the world, study finds," The Guardian, Jonathan Watts (December 2025) https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/dec/11/economic-growth-no-longer-linked-to-carbon-emissions-in-most-of-the-world-study-finds
- Global Electricity Mid-Year Insights 2025 Ember (October 2025) https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/global-electricity-mid-year-insights-2025/
- 10 Years Post-Paris: A decade that defied predictions Energy & Climate Intelligence Unit (October 2025) https://eciu.net/analysis/reports/2025/10-years-post-paris
- World Energy Investment 2025 International Energy Agency (June 2025) https://www.iea.org/reports/world-energy-investment-2025/executive-summary
- “Pentagon says Lockheed Martin gets $328.5 million Taiwan military sale contract” Reuters, Kanishka Singh (December 2025) https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/pentagon-says-lockheed-martin-gets-3285-million-taiwan-military-sale-contract-2025-12-31/
- China dominates clean technology manufacturing investment as tariffs begin to reshape trade flows BloombergNEF Clean Energy Finance (April 2025) https://about.bnef.com/insights/clean-energy/china-dominates-clean-technology-manufacturing-investment-as-tariffs-begin-to-reshape-trade-flows-bloombergnef/